Knowing Behavioral Habits Is Key To Success 

By Jim Prevor, Editor-in-Chief, Produce Business

Many years ago, a gentleman named Barney McLure was an innovator in the promotion of fresh produce, especially Chilean fruit. But one minor project he took on was a voluntary association of importers of Italian chestnuts. The association didn’t last long because the importers could never resolve a question: Was the industry better off promoting chestnuts in markets where they were already known and selling well — mostly big urban markets such as New York and San Francisco that had large populations of Italian descent — or would the industry be better off promoting in areas with few Italians and with low consumption of chestnuts?

Of course, the key here is defining what “better off” means. Does it mean measuring which effort will result in more product being consumed over the next century? Or does it mean which approach will move more product this season?

The implication of this study by the Hass Avocado Board requires thought. Certainly, for any given supermarket, the big win is capturing “Super Heavy” households from their competitors. Yet for the industry as a whole, it is not clear at all that focusing on these consumers is the way to increase consumption.

Perhaps the real win is to conduct follow-up research focusing on what it is about the habits of Super Heavy users that, if adopted by others, would lead to increased consumption. In other words, it is interesting to know the demographic variables that indicate people are high consumers, but we want to know the eating habits of these high consumption users.

There are hints of this in the study.  It is not surprising that the larger household sub-group, composed of households with three or more people, accounts for 49 percent of Super Heavy purchases, but only 41 percent of the general population. What is really interesting, however, is that small households account for 51 percent of the Super Heavy purchasers.

What does that mean? Why do these smaller households buy so many avocados?  Maybe we can find that the habit distinguishing such purchasers is that they incorporate avocado into breakfast — whereas lower consumption people do not. Maybe the Super Heavy purchasers eat guacamole every day when eating chips while watching TV, whereas consumers with lower consumption prefer salsa or onion dip, or don’t eat chips or don’t watch TV.

Here is another thought — are we certain that the Super Heavy purchasers actually eat more avocado? Is it possible they eat at home more, whereas lower-volume consumers eat at restaurants more? Or, is it possible that Super Heavy purchasers make things such as fresh guacamole from avocados they buy in the store, whereas others prefer to buy pre-made guacamole?

One question that also requires further research is whether the various demographics reported are actually serving as proxies for other, more explanatory, traits. For example, other parts of the study point out that while Hispanics account for 12.3 percent of the general population, they account for 24 percent of total avocado buyers and 26.7 percent of Super Heavy buyers. To what degree other demographics, say larger families or more children, are a proxy for Hispanic is difficult to tell from this research.

It is easy, and correct, to say that the win for any given retail chain is to attract the Super Heavy buyers. Understanding their demographics can only help develop a strategy to do that. So this research offers important clues for retailers today.

Because Super Heavy buyers enjoy avocados, it is possible that promotions aimed at customers who are already Super Heavy buyers might lead to even higher consumption and purchases — though this too must be researched carefully. Short-term increases in sales can lead to dips in purchases the next week after the sale or promotion is over. Increased usage also can lead to a kind of taste-fatigue, where consumption and purchasing balance out over a year or other period.

Yes, avocados are a product of the wind very clearly at the back of the industry. One can scarcely read a health report today without finding health professionals singing the praises of eating more fat, especially the monounsaturated fat in avocados. It would be a terrible shame to not use this opportunity, this “learning moment,” to encourage people who rarely or never eat avocados to begin doing so now.

The best way to make this happen is to use the demographics revealed in this study as a foundation for deeper behavioral research. To increase consumption, we have to identify eating occasions where people can eat avocados. A good way to do that is to study current high-volume consumers and see if we can encourage others to try enjoying avocados in many of the same ways — and at as many occasions — as these high-volume consumers currently do.